Overall the outlook for vehicle production in China remains positive. Although demand will slow down, it will still remain higher, when compared to other developed markets. IHS Markit expects domestic production to reach the 30-million unit mark by 2022, slightly later than the previous estimate of 2020. Vehicle production is expected to increase slightly in 2019, by 0.5% to 28.2 million units. The main drivers will be shifting production to the non-traditional areas of production and meet NEV demand and production quotas.
China remains the second largest economy in the world, behind the US and just ahead of Japan. GDP growth has slowed from double digit to single digit since the Lehman Crisis in 2009. China is facing many structural and economic issues as it has slowly transitioned from centrally-planned to a market-based economy. If the Chinese government wants to sustain medium-term GDP growth at above 6% per year, it is going to have to continue its reform process, reduce debt, and increase productivity.
In 2018, GDP growth was 6.6% according to official data from the National Statistics Bureau, this is a continued slowdown from 6.9% the previous year. The economy remains weak, the trade war with the US is impacting export volumes, and the government’s stimulus measures are only gradually materializing. These are uncertain times for consumers and investors.
Market review: developments and policies
Congestion and pollution regulation
Players in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market
Geography of demand
China car industry roots
Evolving geography of Chinese car production
Vehicle exports and penetrating new markets
Changes in market structure
New Chinese OEMs
Increasing OEM fragmentation
Supplier base growing
Domestic OEM sourcing
Foreign OEM sourcing
Automotive component imports & exports
Profitability under attack
Supply base structure
Volkswagen (including FAW, SAIC and JAC)
Chongqing Changan Automobile (including Ford, Groupe PSA, and Mazda)
Dongfeng (including Honda, Renault-Nissan and PSA)
SAIC Motor (including GM and VW)
General Motors (including FAW and SAIC)
Hyundai-Kia (including BAIC and Dongfeng)
Beijing Automotive (including Daimler and Hyundai)
FAW (including GM, Mazda, Toyota and VW)
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