Auto Tech Report - Autonomous Driving: Question is when, not if

Autonomous driving is a major evolutionary market force that will transform the automotive landscape.

The underpinnings of this long-term trend are already widely available in vehicles today. Current Advanced Driver Assist Systems (ADAS) utilize sensors such as radar, camera, lidar, ultrasound, location, map data, and many others to understand what is happening around the vehicle. Drivers can be alerted to possible hazards in advance, but ADAS is also able to predict likely driving scenarios and can increasingly react automatically to possible road events. As sensors improve and systems become more intelligent, the driver is no longer in primary control.

Incremental advances in vehicle automation will pave the road to autonomy, providing improvements to road safety, personal convenience and fuel efficiency. Despite the value of these benefits, several potential obstacles stand in the way of a future of fully autonomous cars. Questions surrounding liability, insurance and legality will help shape the future of autonomous vehicles as much as the potential benefits that will stretch beyond the roadway alone and far-reaching implications on personal mobility, vehicle ownership and more.

Contents

Executive Summary

Autonomous Driving Definition

Autonomous Driving Strategies

Autonomous Driving Developments in 2014

Autonomous Driving OEM Market Trends and Scenarios

Autonomous Driving Technology Requirements

• Operations
• Functional Evolution
• Legal and standards issues
• Security requirements
• Timeline
• Self-driving car forecast

Google Self-Driving Car Impact

Self-Driving Vehicle Opportunities

Autonomous Driving Conclusions

Appendix: Relevant References

• Reports
• Presentations
• Services

Tables

Autonomous driving summary

Autonomous driving level definitions

Autonomous driving strategies

Key autonomous driving events in 2014

Current OEM autonomy level trends and forecasts

Self-driving car scenarios

What is needed for a self-driving car?

Self-driving car: functional evolution

Self-driving car: pricing perspectives

Self-driving car: legal and standards issues

Self-driving car: security requirements

Autonomous technology timeline

Self-driving vehicle opportunities

Autonomous driving evolution

Self-driving car conclusions

 

Charts

Self-driving vehicle opportunity: cars and commercial vehicles

 

Graphs

Self-driving car forecast: worldwide yearly sales

Self-driving car forecast: regional yearly sales

Self-driving car forecast: cumulative sales

 

Appendix

IHS Automotive related reports

IHS Automotive related presentations

IHS Automotive related services