With real-world testing norms to be implemented soon, smaller diesel engines may find it difficult survive due to rise in the cost of their development
Diesel-powered engines have been in the eye of a storm since September 2015, when Volkswagen admitted to rigging emission testing. Many automakers since have come under the scanner for falsifying emission test results. A year later, pure diesel engines today are facing more scrutiny than ever before, and especially the smaller diesel engines.
Recently Volkswagen research and development (R&D) chief, Frank Welsch, voiced similar views when he said that pure diesel engines will soon be out of the market and will be replaced by mild hybrid gasoline cars by as early as 2019. “Today, diesel engines are more expensive [than petrol engines] and this distance is going to grow as we have to work to tougher standards. We have enough customers for diesel in cars like Polo now, but that might not be the case forever,” Welsch was quoted as saying.
Looming real-world emission testing
The sooner-than-anticipated death of diesel engine is foreseen mainly because of the upcoming real world emission testing, due to begin in parts of the world next year. Initial observation has shown that smaller engines perform much worse in real world testing compared to when they are tested in controlled laboratory environment. From September next year cars sold in European Union (EU) countries will be required to undergo real-world testing for carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOX) emission. Even India has announced that by 2024, all cars will have to go through real-world emission testing.
Cars sold in the EU last year consumed 42% more fuel on average during real-world driving conditions than during laboratory testing, Financial Times reported recently, citing a report by Transport & Environment, which was based on review of cars from 16 brands.
R C Bhargava, chairman of Maruti Suzuki, Suzuki Motors’ India subsidiary, said in a report recently that in a country like India, where smaller cars make up 75% of the total cars, contribution of diesel cars is expected to fall to around 40% by 2020, from over 50% at present. “After 2020, the price of diesel cars will rise further, and the smaller diesel cars actually will go out of production because a diesel car that costs INR500,000 (USD7,355) now, will cost INR100,000 more after Euro VI norms come into play.”
48V Kicking In
The rise of mild hybrid such as the 48 volt (V) systems will only fasten the replacement process because of its affordability. According to IHS Automotive, around 23 million vehicles would be equipped with 48V electrical systems by 2020, up from 63,000 units in 2015. While the maximum usage will be in the hybrid application, it is also expected to be used in non-hybrid applications such as powering electric turbo chargers. Some of the auto suppliers that are working on this technology include Delphi, Continental, Schaeffler, LG Chem, Valeo, FEV, Bosch, TDK, and Hella. According to the Delphi, the 48V electrification system lowers CO2 emissions by more than 10%.
Rising clamor against diesel
Many major cities have already announced plans to ban sale of diesel vehicles going forward. Paris (France), Mexico City (Mexico), Madrid (Spain) and Athens (Greece), have said that they will stop sales of diesel powered cars and trucks by 2025. Paris has already taken a series of steps to cut the impact of diesel cars and trucks. Vehicles registered before 1997 have already been banned from entering the city. There are calls for similar move in London as well. However, given the automakers’ forecast, the diesel vehicles could be out of the market much before the deadline.
The fact of the matter is meeting real world regulations will require a lot more investments into technology and components to enable cars to meet the set standards. This will bump up the production cost of diesel cars even further, which will invariably be passed on to the customers. The widening gulf between gasoline and diesel car prices will be felt much more in the smaller car segment, which will make smaller diesel cars less attractive to larger masses. Moreover, the effort of making diesel engines compliant is expected to become uneconomical for automakers as well.
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